A key difference between Al-Qaeda and ISIS that contributes to Al-Qaeda's more sustainable organization is the structure of the groups. By strucutre, I am referring to qualities such as age, demographics, and leadreship dynamics throughout the ranks. Ayman al-Zawahiri is Al-Qaeda's current leader following the death of Osams bin Laden in 2011. He is currently 65 years old and has been an integral part of the organizaion since its creation in the 1990s following the Soviets' invasion of Afghanistan.[4] Like other members of the leadership, he has learned from mistakes the group has made and withstood the United States' invasion of Afghanistan. In 2012, al-Zawahiri sent a letter to the former ISIS leader, Abu Mus 'ab al-Zarqawi. He wrote, "If we look at the two short-term goals, which are removing the Americans and establishing an Islamic emirate in Iraq, or a caliphate if possible, then we will see that the strongest weapon which the mujahedeen enjoy - after the help and granting of success by God - is popular support from the Muslim masses in Iraq, and the surrounding Muslim countries." The group's leadership recognizes that military power is not the only key to a successful state, and the importance from gaining support from followers in all ranks of their organization. Former ISIS leader Al-Zarqawi and current ISIS leader al-Bagdhadi continuously ignore the advice stressing the importance of Muslim support. Al-Qaeda's older and more experienced leadserhip gives them an advantage in achieving long term results. They are showing patience to wait for a devoted followership before exerting rule. Additionally, as the organization has evolved more slowly than ISIS, they have a more top down structure, achieved by sticking to the mentality described above by Zawahiri in his letter. These experienced members have better ability to exert influence and control over the lower ranks. Support throughout the ranks and a top down strucutre are both factors will lead to a much more united group to govern if a territory is established.
The statistics illustrate above reflect ISIS' lack of focus of gaining support from the region. Unlike Al-Qaeda's long, patient rise to power, ISIS has rapidly built their state in less than half the time of Al-Qaeda, and this hasty start will have its consequences. Abu Bakr al-Bagdhadi assumed leadership of the group ISIS following Al-Qaeda in Iraq's (AQI) official split from Al-Qaeda in 2010.[5] He is 44 years old, yet is one of the older members of ISIS, which is comprised primarily of males between the ages of 18-36.[6] Their violent rampages and action packed youtube videos serve as their primary recruiting tools, which has left them with a young, mostly uneducated militia. These young, low ranking members possess a significant amount of the organizations power and influence as they post videos representing ISIS and carry out attacks mostly of their own accord.[7] This bottom up strucutre is likely to present significant challenges to ISIS' ability to function as a self-sustaining state. Once the leadership must make governing decisions, they will have to exert leadership over a population comprised of those who chose them over death and those attracted to the excitement of war, making them likely to revolt. Additionally, if they lose their top leadership it is unlikely the lower ranking members will be competent in filling their positions.
Al-Qaeda
ISIS
-Ayman al-Zawahiri -
Structure
