Some instances of Al-Qaeda's activity following the U.S. withdraw from Iraq in 2013
Despite being out of the spotlight, Al-Qaeda has continued to facilitate attacks since the 9/11 plane hijackings. Although none have been quite as large scale, our distraction with ISIS will allow them to keep growing until they have they have the resources for larger attacks. A chart displaying al-Qaeda activity via the 2014 rand study, shown right, illustrates that the group is on the rise.
Hijacked Pakistani Vessel (2014)
Al-Qaeda appeared to adapt to the U.S. war by increasing their efforts to establish alliances through positive interactions with Muslims in Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and most recently in Southeast Asia. This network formed by alliances with local populations allowed the group's spread to multiple countries, making the threat they pose significantly harder to contain now that the threat is no longer localized. The newest Al-Qaeda branches located in Southeast Asia have already shown their alignment with Al-Qaeda priorities when they facilitated an attempted attack on a US Navy Vessel. In February 2014, a Pakistani vessel was hijacked by an Al-Qaeda operant in an attempt to launch rockets at American vessels. Even more indicative of Al-Qaeda’s powerful influence, the attack was carried out by a Pakistani military officer who deflected and pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda.[8] This is just one example of how their less violent strategy of spreading influence is gaining the support of more moderate followers that work closely with the United States. Al-Qaeda's networking has increased the threat of a security breach against the United States and its allies if the local forces we work with become compromised from within as stated in this example.
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Massive Training Camp Raid (2015)
In October 2015, U.S. and Afghan soldiers raided an Al-Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan. Although U.S. defense officials estimated Afghanistan to have 50-100 Al-Qaeda operatives, the U.S. took out what was described by Army General John Campbell as one of the largest facilities of this type seen in the last 14 years.[9] This shows that the U.S. may be underestimating the scale of Al-Qaeda's operations. This finding and the speculation there could be more should be deeply concerning to the U.S. since possessing strong training camps is a powerful recruitment tool for Al-Qaeda. They could gain significant popularity and numbers as recruits seek training, especially amongst the current violence and instability in Afghanistan.
U.S. Army General John Campbell
Rivalry between terror groups
Simultanious acts of terror in 2015 shed light on what could be an unforgiving rivalry. Following the Paris attacks that killed 130 people and were immediately claimed by ISIS, Al Qaeda reasserted their relevance when they attacked a hotel in Mali.[10] Following these attacks, some rivalry came to light over social media networks such as Twitter. One Al-Qaeda supporter who is presumed to be an Al-Qaeda affiliated fighter in Syria said, “Allahu alam (God knows best) they don’t operate in #Mali, we all know who operated there,” referring to some wrongful suggestions that ISIS may have also been responsible for the hotel attack.[11] The al-Qaeda group also noted that they spared the Muslim hostages in their Mali attack. The Mali gunman allowed hostages to recite verses from the Quran to prove they were Muslim and freed those who completed verses.
They used this approach, which they considered a moral attack of their aggressors, as propaganda to Muslims who disapproved of ISIS' tendency to target other Muslims. Another Al-Qaeda affiliate’s twitter post that followed the events read, “This is how Muslims SHOULD act,” and that the Islamic state, “should learn a thing or two and drop their crooked creed and methodology.”[12] In Iraq and Syria, the Islamic state has victimized mostly Muslims, and Muslims accounted for some of those killed in the Paris attacks.[13]
While these attacks highlight the danger that could arise from ISIS-Al-Qaeda rivalry, there may be an upside. As Al-Qaeda more desperately attempts to rebrand themselves and forge a deeper rift between ISIS, it appears they are attempting to emphasize the qualities of the group which make them more moderate and less violent. Al-Qaeda continusouly points to ISIS' brutal killings as propaganda to encourage Muslims not to follow thier ideology. This could provide a vital opportunity for U.S. national security officials to address Al-Qaeda's threat to America as something other than what Bush referred to as, "an attack on freedom itself," in his Oval Office address on September 20, 2001. This misidentification of Al-Qaeda's justifications in their attack on September 11, 2001, basically created a problem that was not quite in line with the actual U.S.-Al-Qaeda conflict. Specifically, the problem was not an attack driven by hatred for the western way of life, but a built up reaction to not getting the results Al-Qaeda desired in terms of the U.S. continuing to fund regimes they felt were oppressive. Dealing with the actual threat should be prioritized higher than ISIS for the following two reasons: First, there is a surplus of information such as letters and online posts which detail Al-Qaeda's strategy and justifications which should make the group more predictable, therefore, easier to address. Second, regardless of the United State's role in the defeat of ISIS, prioritizing ISIS over Al-Qaeda leaves us with two different threats, the latter being even more focused on anti-American attacks. Prioritizing Al-Qaeda in U.S. national security will ultimately make defeating ISIS more achievable by removing one threat and allowing us to focus on this very unique conflict that ISIS presents. Even though ISIS is committing brutal attacks each day, the U.S. focusing on developing a solution with Al-Qaeda will ultimately allow us to better handle ISIS.
Al-Qaeda in Syria
Prioritizing ISIS as a security threat could not only lead to opportunities for more attacks on America, but also could lead to the U.S. unintentionally providing weapons and funding as Al-Qaeda embeds themselves deeper into the fractured Syrian population, and increasingly appear to be working closely with the more moderate opposition groups, which the U.S. supports. Vetting opposition groups is becoming increasingly difficult, and regardless if they are given directly, Al-Qaeda will gain access to weapons and resources as they form alliances with the opposition groups the U.S. is supporting. [14]. The possibilty that the U.S. is providing weapons and resources which could be accessed by Al-Qaeda is another factor supporting their prioritization in national security.
President Bush's address to the nation on September 20, 2001
“Al Qaeda is to terror what the Mafia is to crime. But its goal is not making money, its goal is remaking the world and imposing its radical beliefs on people everywhere.”
